Monthly auto sales is the first big thing to watch in 2023. What to expect?

Emkay Global Financial Services conducted a channel check to gauge the volume estimate for December 2022.

As per the research note, Emkay Global said that the channel checks indicate a higher YoY volume for PVs, though volumes would be lower MoM due to production constraints. Further, Tractor volumes are likely to be better on a YoY basis but decline MoM due to seasonality. In addition, 2-Wheeler volume growth should be positive YoY, supported by marriage season demand and favorable base effect. Lastly, CVs are likely to maintain their double-digit growth momentum.

Passenger vehicles:

According to Emkay Global, in December, the passenger vehicles segment may witness robust growth overall year-on-year in volumes on account of a large order book.

However, it said, “Volumes are likely to decline sequentially on production constraints. Supply constraints are persisting due to electronic component shortages, which may continue in the subsequent months.”

Among OEMs, Emkay estimates domestic volumes to grow by 64% YoY for M&M and 25% for Tata Motors while declining slightly by 4% for Maruti Suzuki due to the six-day maintenance shutdown. Blended vehicle discounts have increased on an MoM basis due to seasonality but remain lower than the peak levels seen in the past.

Commercial vehicles:

In this segment, Emkay expects volume growth in double-digits to over 10% yoy in December due to robust demand in both passenger and cargo segments.

Under commercial vehicles, in the cargo segment, demand is chiefly being driven by large fleet operators and demand from small/medium operators are seeing a gradual recovery.

Emkay expects positive growth at 27% YoY for Ashok Leyland, 22% for M&M, 12% for Eicher Motor’s VolveEicherCV, and 1% for Tata Motors in the domestic market. Ashok Leyland remains an outperformer due to a favorable mix and enhanced marketing efforts.

Two-Wheelers:

For 2-wheelers, Emkay believes the volumes will improve with an over 15% yoy growth on a low base.

The stock brokerage’s channel checks indicate that marriage season demand aided 2- wheeler volumes in the initial part of the month till the commencement of the inauspicious period.

Emkay Global expects domestic volumes to improve by 25% for

TVS Motor, 9% for Hero Moto Corp Ltd, and 2% for Bajaj Auto, whereas they should slightly decline by 3% for EicherRoyal Enfield.

Tractors:

This industry’s volume may post positive growth as well in December.

Emkay expects single-digit growth in domestic volumes, at 8% yoy for M&M and 5% yoy for Escorts.

Emkay remains constructive in the auto sector. Its preferred picks in the OEM space include Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motor, Escorts Ashok Leyland, and TVS Motor.

Here’s company-wise volumes expectations in December 2022 by Emkay Global:

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint.